1. Can we avoid disasters?
The Disasters Avoided website (disastersavoided.com) includes case study examples funded by NASA Earth Sciences of how disasters are being avoided in urban areas and elsewhere, as well as articles, interviews, tools and news about various aspects of disaster risk and how to prevent disasters from happening.
Avoiding disasters is hard. It requires integrated action from lots of different people and groups. When key elements come together, we can avoid the worst. A model is provided on the Disasters Avoided website to describe this. It starts with having the right mindset, which includes a willingness to engage a wide range of people into the effort and working with nature, not against it. The right mindset needs to be supported by a foundation of good governance; the right investment / funding supports limited resources being used intelligently; there needs to be a commitment to act on good data from a range of sources, including satellite observations, drones and on-the-ground monitoring to support informed decision-making; meaningful inclusion means that everyone should take part in agreeing action and then implementing it; meaningful targets are required to work towards.
Defining a disaster
Whilst UNDRR provides detailed disaster risk definitions and terminology (and other definitions exist), a simple definition of a disaster is put forward in the Disasters Avoided initiative:
A major situation requiring outside support for coping.
Something happens, we cannot deal with it, and we need help. It applies to individual, community, state and country levels and at the international level. It relates to the United Nations definition and to those used by scientists, emergency services and dictionaries. Hazardous events are not mentioned in this definition since not all disasters are events – some occur over time in which there are creeping changes or a lack of action – such as environmental changes that lead to drought, and human failure address weaknesses in our built environment in areas vulnerable to earthquakes.
The Disasters Avoided initiative and other efforts such as the Averted Disasters Award show that we can avoid disasters. We are not destined to suffer catastrophic consequences of human lives lost, livelihoods destroyed and harm to nature that may take a long time to recover from (if at all) from hazards that exist. No potential disaster should be a shock or “black swan” to us, because we should know the hazards and threats we face - we have surely had enough practice and experience of them by now. Not all hazards are fully predictable, but we can predict and redress vulnerabilities and exposures that we have to them through good governance, and act in an appropriate way that values life and nature. We can measure meaningful outcomes that show economic, human and environmental benefits. Good things happen when committed people and organisations collaborate to prevent a disaster from happening.
A great deal of money is allocated to help places recover from disaster events after they have happened, when people and their environments need urgent support. Post-disaster event support will always be required, but there is a case to spend more time and resources on preventing disaster events such as storms, flooding, wildfires and drought turning into disasters. Cities and towns are key to taking action to invest in avoiding disasters.
All eras face economic and social challenges, but is this just an excuse for not investing in people and society? Disasters in urban areas and elsewhere arise when those with power and resources create and perpetuate problems. We have succeeded in so many ways, reducing oppression and supporting equity and equality around the world, yet we have much more to do. The focus in coming years and decades is invest time and scarce resources upfront – and to measure our performance by doing so.
The UNDRR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 & the work of MCR2030
On an international and supranational level, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) owns the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.
At a city level, UNDRR runs a global forum called Making Cities Resilient 2030 – MCR2030. MCR2030 focuses on helping cities to improve their local resilience through advocacy, knowledge sharing including city-to-city learning networks, providing technical expertise, connecting multiple levels of government and building good partnerships. As of November 2023, over 1,600 cities were part of the MCR2030 network. Many interesting web-based peer reviews and knowledge sharing events about cities and case studies are held.
The Sendai Framework links to other 2030 Global Frameworks including the SDGs. It focuses on the adoption of measures to address the three dimensions of disaster risk - (1) exposure to hazards, (2) vulnerability and capacity, and (3) hazard’s characteristics. Its aim is to prevent the creation of new risk, to reduce existing risk and to increase resilience. The framework outlines seven global targets to guide and against which to assess progress. The Sendai Framework Monitor is an online tool that captures self-reported (by member states) progress data against a set of 38 Sendai Framework indicators towards the seven Sendai Framework global targets. The indicators measure progress and determine global trends in the reduction of risk and losses.
The Midterm Review of the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, which was completed in mid-2023, emphasised the following:
- An increase in the number of people affected by disasters since 2015.
- Disasters are expensive to respond to.
- Funding for disaster risk reduction has stalled.
A periodic flagship report published by UNDRR is the Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction. The GAR 2022 Summary states that:
- Commitments have been made to build resilience, tackle climate change and create sustainable development, but current societal, political and economic choices are doing the reverse.
- The goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 may not be achieved and progress towards the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) insufficient.
- New approaches are required to change course, which will require transformation in what governance systems value and how systemic risk is understood and addressed. Doing more of the same will not be enough.
The UN University (UNU), a separate part of the UN network of agencies, publishes reports, including Disaster Risks in an Interconnected World.
The Global Alliance for Urban Crises
The Global Alliance for Urban Crises is a multi-disciplinary community of practice working to prevent, prepare for and effectively respond to humanitarian crises in urban settings. Their Strategy for 2021-2024 is publicly available on their website.
The Urban Humanitarian Response Portal is a solution which exists to share knowledge globally on urban humanitarian crises, with a library of reports, lessons learnt, policies, tools and methodologies relevant to responding to crises in urban environments.
Urban planning must account for disaster threats and vulnerabilities
Good urban master planning plays a part in tackling threats posed by possible disasters. Land and water catchment use, where and how we build, our water infrastructure and other actions play a large part in our resilience against these types of threats.
The use of proactive-orientated data and modelling from the public and private sector and effective early warning systems can help authorities and the people they serve to act early and save their livelihoods from events and situations that can cause harm.
There are opportunities to learn from success stories around the world to continually improve and to be as proactive as possible.
Practical technology solutions help to reduce the risk of disasters – and they need not be complicated. Good, tested siren alert systems can be crucial to warn people of incoming threats. A good SMS / text / app alerts system that is well maintained and tested can be crucial in informing and warning people about different threats, which can save many lives. Ensuring public trust in such systems, including robust testing, is important - the use of systems that house personal data requires careful management of data privacy.
Policy at local and federal / national levels has an important role to play in linking to municipal authorities. Citizens of urban areas must receive clear communications from their governments and local authorities about the risks faced, and those in high-risk areas in particular must be prepared to quickly respond when required. Maybe the design of an “Urban 2.0 app” (discussed on this website) could help to manage such communications, including early warning of looming disaster threats.
Private sector actions to help avoid disasters
Heat
Heat is deadly. Some call it a silent killer, because it doesn't always make news headlines - though this is changing, as extreme heat events become more common.
Here are some statistics to reflect on:
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated in its State of the Global Climate in 2022 that heatwaves and global temperatures are rising
- The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, between 1998 and 2017, 166,000 people died due to heatwaves, a total that eclipses more headline-grabbing natural disasters.
- A report published in the Lancet, a medical journal, estimates that in 2018 some 300,000 people over the age of 65 died as a result of extreme heat – a 54 per cent increase since the year 2000.
In a world where heat levels are rising and periods of intense heat are becoming more prolonged in duration, authorities of cities and towns around the world, supported by governments, know they need to do something about it. They need to take action to avoid a heat-related disaster.
The urban heat island (UHI) effect makes urban areas significantly warmer than their less densely populated surrounding areas (whilst noting that hard-baked arable areas cook as well). Hard surfaces in urban built environments typically absorb, store and radiate heat, and when there is little in the way of ‘green cover’ this effect is even worse. The effect is most acute at night-time.
Sensible actions are required to tackle the urban heat island effect. Buildings need to be adapted. Better local-specific ecological solutions are required. Citizens need better information and facilities. Workers need to be protected from the heat.
Some countries are on the front line of the challenge. India loses a significant amount of economic performance to heat. Heat Action Plans (HAPs) are in place across most if not all states to try to tackle the problem, and whilst some commentators suggest they are not entirely effective, some actions seem to be bearing fruit.
Taking appropriate action based on science-based data is key. Some initiatives that may seem to be good ideas on first view may not be the best to implement for the long-term. For example, is using reflective white paint on hard surfaces to reflect sunlight and reflect heat a good idea? Maybe, but maybe not - it depends on the context of the environment (for example, how dusty does the local area get). Good governance and societal cohesion can ensure broad consultation with people (citizens, academics, businesses and others) to find the most appropriate solutions, perhaps looking at needs with the help of the Sustainable Development Goals (the SDGs).
Dealing with extreme heat - it is getting worse...
A mounting body of evidence shows that heat is impacting more and more of the world’s urban (and rural) environments. Many of them are not prepared or adapting fast enough to cope with heat. They are suffering economically and societally as a result.
Over the past 150-200 years of industrialisation (which arose in what we now call the developed world) our use of fossil fuels, especially in what are now classed as developed economies, has released a continuous stream of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, driving up average global temperatures and resulting in new heat records regularly being set, everywhere. Around the world, heatwaves are more frequent and last longer than they did 70 years ago. If urban environments are not adapted to this challenge, our problems will only mount.
As with most hazards, heatwaves and extreme levels of heat do not hurt equally. The poor and marginalised suffer the most – the wealthy can avoid the worst (but not all) of it. Poor people are least likely to have access to cooling measures, indoors and outdoors; they might not have electricity when they need it due to power blackouts (for example, due to increased demand for power-hungry air conditioning). The poor are more likely to work outdoors under a baking sun, or in hot indoors environments (the International Labour Organization lists heat as an occupational health hazard).
Wherever we live, the problem is increasingly hard to escape around the world. Economic losses from heat stress are projected to rise to US$2.4 trillion in 2030 – and this economic hit will be unequally focused on the poor and the disadvantaged.
What can we do to tackle the threat of heat?
Heatwaves and periods of extreme heat are a significant threat to human health. The degree of preparedness by cities and towns to deal with it varies widely. Cities and towns that exist in areas where severe heat has been a part of life for some time typically (but not always) have a range of measures in place, when they have the means at their disposal to implement them.
Many cities and towns are in areas where severe heat has, until now, not been commonplace. However, heatwaves are becoming increasingly common and increasingly severe. Many urban environments are underprepared to deal with such events. Their building stock is often designed for the cold, not heat. The collective built environment of these urban areas, with its masses of brick and concrete and tarmac roads, traps heat rather than reflects it away.
Changing building codes and planning requirements for an urban area to be better adapted for heat as well as for the cold takes time (and good governance to enforce changes). Implementing retrofits of existing buildings and new specifications for new ones incurs costs to citizens and businesses. Introducing heat resilience centres costs the taxpayer money.
Will cities in towns across the world make long-term decisions to tackle heat as part of their long-term urban strategies, supported by good data, or will they ignore the problem and wait for it to get worse - kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with in future?
Currently, many cities and towns take an “emergency management” approach to dealing with heat. Can they be more proactive than reactive? National, state/area and local governments need to work together to agree adaptation measures for cities and towns, perhaps linked to integrated resilience plans (to cover all hazards they face) and climate adaptation plans that have quantifiable goals and targets (informed by good data) to work towards.
There is some positive news. Some cities and towns are taking action, and continuously trying to improve. Many advisory reports and guidelines exist about dealing with heat in urban environments - for example:
- UNEP released a report in November 2021 "Beating the Heat: A Sustainable Cooling Handbook for Cities"
- The Heat Action Platform funded by The Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock) is a place for city officials, practitioners, and financial institutions to find guidance on reducing the human and economic impacts of extreme heat at the regional or municipal level
- A report released in February 2024 discusses the benefits of various cooling measures in the form of green and blue infrastructure.
In December 2023, more than 60 countries committed to answering a key question at the United Nations climate summit known as COP28: How can communities stay cool in a warming world without generating more greenhouse gas emissions?
At COP28 these countries signed a first-ever Global Cooling Pledge. The pledging nations promise to reduce cooling-related emissions 68% by 2050 in comparison to 2022 levels.
Along with the Global Cooling Pledge, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report examining how the world can reach near-zero emissions in key cooling sectors, including refrigeration and air conditioning.
Three key takeaways are:
- Passive cooling can reduce a building’s energy consumption by 8% to 70%, suggests research cited in the report.
- One of the most effective regulatory actions to reduce cooling demand is building energy codes that explicitly include the passive cooling measures mentioned above, the report says.
- At a local and regional governance level, climate / heat action plans “provide an opportunity for [countries] to identify the size of their cooling challenge”.
Various news articles and science-based pieces exist about dealing with heat. Some that focus on specific cities and towns are available in the Cities & Towns section.
Flooding
Flooding, be it coastal or inland, continues to cause chaos in cities and towns around the world. Global climate modelling highlighted in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, which was published in three volumes in 2021 and 2022, indicates that increased levels of weather volatility associated with climate change are increasing the quantity, frequency, and intensity of rainfall and extreme weather events, including flooding, around the world. In the past few years we have seen plenty of examples of intense flooding that has had a major impact on cities and towns. Exacerbating the problem is that flood-prone areas continue to be hotspots for urban development.
People's lives and livelihoods are at risk when flooding occurs. Stormwater infrastructure that was designed for a certain amount of water is being overwhelmed. Transport and energy infrastructure (transport, underground services etc.) often ceases to function. Buildings become uninhabitable or unusable. Insurance costs go up, and sometimes insurers refuse to insure. People's stress levels rocket. The financial aftermath of dealing with flooding events is often huge, with lengthy clean-up times adding to the problems (which you can read about in some of our urban interviews).
In the 15-year period of the year 2000 to 2015, about 255 million to 290 million people were estimated to be living in flood-prone areas, and the population impacted increased by an estimated 24 per cent since 2000. The impact of urban development and global migration is a key factor in the increase of people at risk from flooding.
Research published by Nature in August 2021 (using satellite imagery to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018) has shown that global urban development combined with migration patterns is increasing the proportion of the world’s population that is exposed to flood risk.
What can be done about this mounting problem?
Dealing with flood risk
Many cities and towns around the world are located next to the sea or the ocean, or on a major river – and for good reason. Waterways have been pivotal to trade and commerce for centuries. Today, these urban areas face increasing threats linked to climate change.
The resilience of cities and towns located next to the ocean or the sea against rising sea levels is of pressing importance. Reports and research released over the past few years indicates that many of the world’s largest urban hubs face increasing risks of extreme sea level events such as storms and hurricanes (influenced by global warming). From Alexandria to Bangkok, Basra to Ho Chi Min City, Mumbai to New York, Shanghai to Venice, the threat is growing and the fallout of flooding events is there for everyone to see. It is not only a problem for the world's major urban centres - it is a growing threat for many small towns too.
Scientists do not know exactly how fast or how high sea levels will rise, but there is general agreement on the impact it is having: submergence and flooding of coastal land, saltwater intrusion into surface waters and groundwater, increased erosion of land and the built environment and a range of interconnected negative social and economic consequences. The consensus amongst experts is that these effects will be widespread, and they may accelerate over time.
Whilst some coastal cities could literally be submerged, most will not be. All coastal cities and towns must think through their specific flooding risks, which includes examining the fabric of the built environment that exists on the coast and what is at risk, and how this built environment is forecast to change over time. They need to anticipate problems and agree how to introduce the right kinds of measures to be resilient against flooding. Building human-made sea defence walls is only part of the solution - if at all. Better types of flood barriers should be considered. Nature-based Solutions such as natural coastal defences as "green/blue infrastructure" need to be considered alongside human-made "grey" infrastructure. Many natural flooding defences such as sea grass and mangroves were stripped away in the name of urban economic development, and there is a compelling case to reverse this pattern in much of the world.
In coastal towns and cities, lower-cost housing is often located in low-elevation districts that are vulnerable to flooding and storm surges, sometimes from the coast and sometimes from higher areas above them. This type of housing tends to be of poor quality, with structural problems and inadequate maintenance adding to the pressures of land vulnerabilities to flooding. Even relatively small events can have huge consequences on the households of these areas, damaging people’s belongings, disrupting utilities, contaminating water and creating other negative health impacts. Their livelihoods can be taken away from them in an instant.
Those who live in these areas are often more vulnerable, with low incomes and few financial assets, little say or influence in how things are run, and they are often not connected to sources of information about disaster recovery aid either.
The lack of ecological solutions, built environment vulnerability, socioeconomic vulnerability and lack of good governance to drive the right proactive measures to be in place add up to pressure on these areas that will only increase over time if action is not taken to address the challenges proactively, and to avoid a disaster before it has the chance to happen.
Are storms getting too big for today's urban environments to cope?
Storms (hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons and others) cause widespread havoc and damage around the world. The flooding they can cause frequently results in huge problems. Tackling the threat of storms is critical to achieving thriving and resilient urban places. Subterranean parts of the urban environment such as subways and basements are obvious risk areas, but the problem is also widespread above ground.
Flash flooding and storm flooding has to be planned for by cities and towns. Many factors contribute, with scientists stating that climate change is making extreme rainfall more likely because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture which makes storms more intense.
The stormwater and drainage infrastructure in many urban environments is not sized to cope with the extent of heavy rainfall they may receive in today's world. In some parts of the world, affluent cities that have taken the threat seriously have created infrastructure that can cope. Most cities and towns do not have this degree of flood resilience (indeed, the water infrastructure in many cities and towns is old and prone to constant leaks).
What can we do to tackle the threat of flooding?
We need a mindset change. A "once in a 100-year" storm does not mean that if one occurs, you won't see another one for 100 years. Rather than plan for a “once in a 100-year, 1,000-year or 10,000-year storm or flooding event”, city and town administrations should use science-informed data for their local area to plan for long-term resilience against different types of flooding (along with other environmental and climate risks) – learning the lessons that their areas may have experienced in the past, and / or that others have experienced. How many near misses have they had of flooding events, and do they routinely learn from such near misses? Actions they can take do not always need to be extremely costly.
City and town planning needs strong governance to ensure sensible zoning for building development. In too many cases in developed and developing economies alike, buildings are being erected in flood-risk areas. Can this stop, when land is at such a premium?
Physical system changes in small, quick and tactical ways can be made in cities and towns to protect them against certain effects of flash flooding. For example, when it is feasible for sidewalks / pavements and roads to be repaired / replaced, can “permeable pavements” be used rather than hard surface materials? Greenery soaks up rainfall, so introduce more greenery (which of course has many other benefits). Can more trees be planted, and more green spaces (which provide many other benefits) be made available, which amongst other things can soak up rainfall and in certain areas prevent or minimise slope erosion? Green roofs help rainwater to soak away rather than running down drainpipes and adding to the pressure on urban drainage and stormwater systems. Rainwater / stormwater and sewer systems need to be kept free of rubbish and trash. If they get blocked up by litter and debris, there will be problems, yet this often happens. Seemingly simple measures such as a good cleaning regime can be part of a coordinated plan to improve flood resilience and minimise flooding impacts. Can a survey of the state of rainwater / stormwater and sewer systems help to provide data to support the need to act?
Different social groups in different areas face different challenges which need to be considered and addressed. For example, for people who live in basement apartments, how can they be helped? Advance warnings to citizens that heavy rainfall is on its way and how to stay safe can help to manage the impact of flash flooding (such warnings are best sent through a variety of channels, not just phone alerts). Weather and flood forecasting science has improved rapidly and nowadays it is often possible to forecast surface water flooding events in advance.
Can cities and towns use improved Early Warning Systems and data from Earth Observatories around the world to be better prepared for storms and flooding – as well as for heat and cold events and other types of disaster threats? Being better prepared for extreme forms of weather and having a short “decision chain” to issue alerts through a range of channels can prevent occurrences becoming disasters, or minimise the impact they have. Can private sector business input add value to municipal teams by providing technical support and other services? Involving many connected parties can help improve resilience management systems.
New insurance solutions could also help with proactive payments, as long as good data and good models are available. Parametric insurance may be one answer. As an example, a UK-based insurer, FloodFlash installs in-situ flood sensors to enable insurance solutions that pay according to the water levels reached.
City and town strategic planning, incorporating scenario planning and What if? analysis, needs to consider the risk that a confluence of events could occur which line up to create a major challenge. Cities and towns need to make tough decisions about their risk appetite and ability to improve their resilience against flooding.
In 2022 the UN University (UNU) released a Flood mapping tool (FMT), available for free online, which uses AI to generate current and future flood risk maps for three climate change scenarios at the city, district, and river basin levels.
Various news articles and science-based pieces exist about dealing with flooding. Some that focus on specific cities and towns are available in the Cities & Towns section.
Wildfire
As recent years have shown us, wildfire poses a significant threat to many urban environments around the world. Wildfires arise from a wide range of causes, and the local context of an area is always key to take into account. Many cities and towns have been built into and next to ecosystems which burn periodically to rejuvenate, including forests, moorlands, and grasslands. Building in a burnable area risks lives lost and infrastructure ruined. People can cause fires from discarded cigarettes, barbecues, campfires not put out, and arson. Electricity power lines can cause fires. In some regions, human-caused climate change can exacerbate weather drivers of fire.
Urban environments and the threat of wildfire is sometimes referred to as the Wildfire-Urban Interface (WUI). Many cities and their metropolitan regions, and towns and smaller urban communities are struggling to deal with wildfires and the effects they have, with lives lost and livelihoods, people's homes, businesses, infrastructure, and nature destroyed. Wildfires may become more frequent and intense in the coming years as temperatures rise and droughts worsen, especially during periods of El Niño. Tackling wildfire risk is an existing and known risk for many cities, and it is a new risk for many others. As we keep seeing from terrible wildfires around the world, smoke from such events can also travel vast distances, causing respiratory and cardiovascular illness and death in urban areas that are a long way from the fire itself.
What can we do to tackle the threat of wildfire?
From Australia to Chile to Spain to the USA, a great deal of work is being done in countries around the world to minimise risk and address vulnerabilities towards wildfire - in urban areas and also rural areas where so much devastation can take place from burning. However, we know that tragedies do still occur.
In areas that have a significant wildfire threat, good land planning is one aspect that can reduce fire risks to homes and communities by requiring new developments to comply with wildfire-resistant design and building techniques. Prevention measures therefore include having strong, enforced building codes and engaging with people to discuss protecting themselves and their properties. Authorities must care for the land, reduce human ignitions, watch for flames, support the fire resistance of properties, and implement fire bans (with measures such as no barbecues) in times of high risk. Effective response to a wildfire outbreak requires maintaining personnel, training, and equipment to monitor and extinguish fires. Cities must provide warnings and guidance on mitigating the health impacts of fire smoke. All residents need the knowledge, resources, and readiness to receive, understand, and act on fire warnings that are trusted, effective, and straightforward, including for evacuation and return afterwards.
For individual home owners, they must appreciate that building / modifying a home to have wildfire protection can increase that home’s survivability. Using wildfire-resistant building materials in the construction of a home can reduce vulnerabilities and opportunities for ignition. Managing vegetation immediately surrounding a home reduces the potential for a home to ignite during a wildfire. These costs should be put into the perspective of the value of the property.
As is the case with flooding events, new insurance solutions could help deal with wildfire events, but it may take time for them to become mainstream. Parametric insurance may be one answer. As an example, Guy Carpenter owns a solution called GC FireCell which consists of defining a series of polygons depicting the exposure of a client.
An example of land use planning activities that can minimise the risk of wildfires is available in this piece by Headwaters Economics (scroll half-way down to see a useful diagram). An example set of planning resources is made available by the US-based Community Wildfire Planning Center.
This piece from the C40 group, published in 2021, discusses how to protect urban lives, health and property from wildfire.
Various news articles and science-based pieces exist about dealing with wildfires. Some that focus on specific cities and towns are available in the Cities & Towns section.
Drought
The number of urban populations around the world facing water scarcity is growing.
Whilst many urban environments face ongoing and increasing flood risk, others face drought. Sometimes the two situations occur in quick succession to each other.
According to some forecasts, the number of people affected by drought is projected to increase from some 933 million (about one third of the global urban population) in 2016 to between 1.7 and 2.4 billion people – equivalent to between one third and nearly half of global urban population – by 2050. India is projected to be the most severely impacted country in terms of the extent of water-scarce urban populations, with a projected increase of between 153 and 422 million people.
The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to potentially over 280, including 10 to 20 of the world’s megacities.
As is the case with other disaster hazards, the urban system is placed at risk when severe drought occurs. The financial costs of dealing with drought situations can be significant.
The challenges of urban water stewardship and how to take care of water are an important part of an overall approach to caring for and managing water.
What can we do to tackle the threat of drought?
In parts of the world where water-stressed cities are on the coast, desalination plants are being used / considered to solve water shortage problems. For cities where local water resources cannot meet demand, inter-basin water transfer and/or groundwater exploitation might be effective solutions. Long-term investment in water infrastructure is costly. It requires substantial commitment and, depending on how it is organised, it can have significant long-term environmental impacts.
Some cities and towns are taking action, and are continuously trying to improve their ability to handle drought situations.
Various news articles and science-based pieces exist about dealing with drought. Some that focus on specific cities and towns are available in the Cities & Towns section.
Major geological events
The threat of earthquakes, tsunamis and / or volcano eruptions for some urban environments is very real indeed. Cities and towns including Christchurch, Jakarta, Kathmandu, Istanbul, Manila, Osaka, San Francisco and Tokyo are situated in known earthquake (seismic) risk zones. For example, earthquake scientists estimate that there is a 72 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the Bay Area in the near future. The one thing these places can do is prepare.
As the earthquake engineering expert Michel Bruneau describes in an interview, a key factor to avoiding an earthquake disaster is good construction of the built environment, applying recognised building codes and structural and civil engineering standards. When governance fails to ensure the right construction is applied, disasters occur as buildings collapse.
It is important for all groups of people involved in thinking about earthquake disaster prevention to agree "what a good outcome is". For structural engineers, a good outcome could be that buildings do not fall down, but, as has been seen in some cases around the world, if this is achieved and the buildings then have to be pulled down because it is too hard to repair them, and plots sit empty for months or become car parks for a while, that is not a good societal outcome for a community. Perhaps there are better building designs that allow for easier repair after an earthquake.
Climate change could trigger massive tsunamis that affect coastal urban environments. The biggest threat in the north Atlantic is said to come from the thinning of Greenland’s ice cap. In a matter of decades, it could trigger major submarine earthquakes off the coast of Greenland, which could cause tsunamis affecting North America and perhaps Europe.
Land volcanoes will continue to pose major risks to people living close by. Underwater volcano eruptions can trigger tsunamis. Such underwater volcano eruptions also risk severing subsea telecoms and Internet cables, which could have a major impact on affected urban areas. The more remote parts of the world, such as some of the worlds’ Small Island Developing States (SIDS) may struggle to find financial resources for back-up subsea cables to be in place, meaning that if such an even occurs they could be cut off for some time. What kind of planning can be done to prevent a major problem if this happens? Many cities are situated quite close to above ground volcanos. Some have been dormant for a long time, others are active. As well as those cities and towns that are situated close to volcanos, it must also be remembered that a large volcano eruption can cause widespread cross-continent disruption to air travel and potentially cause pollution to drift over a very large area.
Many excellent Earth Observatories exist around the world, which cities and towns can work with as part of their early warning set-up and to learn about how geology is changing. Such services might be a way to engage their citizens as well in what is happening to their local environment, which might help to spur greater change at a socio-economic level.
Various news articles and science-based pieces exist about dealing with earthquakes. Some that focus on specific cities and towns are available in the Cities & Towns section.